I don’t for a second think that Martin meant to throw that changeup in the zone. In La Russa’s mind, a pitch in the strike zone was unacceptable. There’s really not much more to say than that. Ramírez is great – but he’s hardly a guaranteed base hit every time a pitch is in the strike zone. Position your second baseman three steps to the right, and that might be an out instead. He threw a well-located changeup that Ramírez put on the ground into the shift. But is that a process failure by Martin? I’m not so sure. Unquestionably, two runs scored on that play. In the third inning, when Martin left a pitch over the plate, it “cost him two runs.” Let’s see the pitch in question: La Russa can’t either – but from the sound of his comments, it sounds deterministic. I can’t tell you what the odds of Ramírez getting a hit on a ball in the strike zone were. It’s not that Ramírez made devastating contact – per Statcast, that foul ball was 63 mph off the bat, though I’m not sure how accurate foul ball exit velocity readings are – but merely the location of the pitch that made an intentional walk a good option. He wanted pitches out of the zone, he didn’t get them, and he didn’t need to see anything more.
We know La Russa’s case: the pitch being on the plate proved to him that Martin couldn’t follow his instructions. The question, instead, is whether the information in that foul ball tilted the balance in favor of an intentional walk. I think I would have walked him there from the start, but I don’t believe it’s an obvious choice either way. 266/.307/.472 for a perfectly acceptable 106 wRC+.īut again, the question isn’t whether walking Ramírez made sense. José Ramírez is one of the best hitters in baseball. If you’re looking to record an out, a foul ball is a pretty good place to start. Only, that description glosses over the change in count, which is the most meaningful thing that happened on that first pitch. Easy peasy, right? He wanted Martin to get Ramírez to chase, Ramírez didn’t, let’s face the next batter. Ramírez had singled in two runs in the third inning, as La Russa alluded to above. Katz was out there to tell Martin to pitch around Ramírez.
He was supposed to do it again, and after one strike, said no.”įirst things first: that explains the pitching meeting. Because he’s smart enough to know to pitch off the plate and he got it on, cost him two runs. I just think it’s lack of experience for Davis and understanding more about that situation. He fouled it off, so I said, well, put him on. So that’s what Ethan went out to say, and the first pitch was on the plate. And if they get good patience, it’s like an unintentional intentional walk. Rather than endlessly speculate, let’s hear what La Russa said about his decision: It didn’t matter, in either case the Sox only scored once all game, and Cleveland held on to win 4-1. Martin recovered to strike Franmil Reyes out, escaping the inning. But abstractions don’t always tell the whole story, so let’s look at the specific circumstances around this walk and see if any of them can shed some light on what happened here.įrom there, La Russa had seen enough: he walked Ramírez. There’s no reason to run the numbers: by the numbers, the walk doesn’t make sense. The knot-untangling game is a clunky analogy but it gets the point across. In an abstract sense, it’s pretty clear why you wouldn’t do this. He did it in contravention of the generally accepted practices of the game, though, by issuing the walk while Ramírez was behind 0-1 in the count. He did so automatically, in keeping with the rules of the game, by signaling to the umpire from the dugout. You liked your odds enough that you didn’t opt out before, and now I’m less likely to accomplish my task.Īnyway, Tony La Russa intentionally walked José Ramírez yesterday. You wouldn’t take me up on it, of course. After those 10 seconds, I offer you the same deal: for $5, we can call the same thing off. For the first 10 seconds, I don’t do anything - maybe I stubbed my toe and am hopping around in pain. Let’s further say that you turn me down, and that the clock starts. You can trade the possibility of a $10 loss for the certainty of a $5 loss. Before I start, I make you an offer: you can just hand me $5 now and we’ll call the whole thing off. I have 60 seconds to accomplish some task – call it untangling a knot. Let’s say you and I have made a strange deal. In the case of when to intentionally walk a batter, though, it follows straightforward logic. Baseball conventional wisdom isn’t always correct.
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